Recent comments by Saudi Arabia and Russia point to a greater probability of a production cut, although higher production from Libya, Nigeria and Iraq are reducing the odds of such a deal rebalancing the oil market in 2017.
Gold has dropped sharply over the past month, from c.$1,350/oz to c.$1,250/oz, with the majority of the move lower occurring on Tuesday of this week, following hawkish comments by Fed officials (Lacker in particular) and a subsequent break of the psychologically and technically important $1,300/oz level (N.B. the next important technical level is $1,248/oz – a 1.618 extension target from the Aug. 2 high).
Precious metals equities have re-rated to historical peaks or above. Morgan Stanley lifts its bull cases to reflect this, but still the risk reward is unappealing bar continued commodity price rises. MS downgrades Randgold to UW, with Centamin most and Fresnillo least preferred.