Ukraine – Three scenarios, and a global slowdown


Quagmire the central case. The situation in Ukraine remains very fluid. Our central case assumes a protracted crisis, keeping the country in a state of instability and energy prices at an elevated level. Alternative scenarios cover a very wide spectrum that cannot all be scenarized. By and large, the optimistic… Read More »

Eurozone growth remains on track


Preliminary GDP data for the first quarter of 2017 shows no slowdown in activity despite a rise in inflation. The eurozone economy enjoyed a strong start to 2017, with GDP expanding by 0.5% quarteronquarter, matching the previous quarter and consensus estimates. Although this is just a preliminary reading with few… Read More »

A Springtime Boost For Europe


Investors underlined April 23 and May 7 in their 2017 diaries several months ago. Although the first round of France’s presidential elections matched recent opinion polls, markets heaved a huge sigh of relief, a reaction that suggests investors should focus on Europe’s risk assets. THINGS NORMALLY GO IN THREESAfter two… Read More »