Quagmire the central case. The situation in Ukraine remains very fluid. Our central case assumes a protracted crisis, keeping the country in a state of instability and energy prices at an elevated level. Alternative scenarios cover a very wide spectrum that cannot all be scenarized. By and large, the optimistic… Read More »
The latest reading on quarterly UK GDP is a bit like assessing the fitness before being sideswiped by a severe cold. Although growth was marginally upgraded for the October to December period to 1.3%, it came before the full impact of Omicron hit and well before commodity chaos was unleashed… Read More »
Upgrading Japan stocks Japanese equities did not escape completely unscathed in the year-to-date selloff in risk assets – yet are poised to end the first quarter as relative outperformers. Japan’s benchmark TOPIX index is the only developed market benchmark up on the year compared to the 3-7% declines for U.S.… Read More »
Mergermarket, the leading provider of M&A data and intelligence, has found that Italian M&A has seen an uptick in activity in Q3, marking the strongest quarter by value since 4Q18. A total of 146 deals were recorded in Q3 worth EUR 11.6bn, pushing YTD figures to EUR 24bn and 423… Read More »
AI, Big Data, Blockchain and FinTech are all key terms for anyone who wishes to survive in our industry in its current state of turbulence, which has been dubbed “the fourth industrial revolution.” Switzerland, a small country nestled at the heart of Europe and undisputed champion of innovation, has found… Read More »
Market optimism towards President Trump’s expectations of tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and deregulation could come under pressure should party infighting and opposition persist. Global equities rallied following his election on anticipation that a Republican controlled White House and Congress could flawlessly push forward a pro-growth agenda. Risky assets that have… Read More »
China will be launching its first nationwide carbon market by the end of 2017. Leveraging on the experiences gained from the development of the domestic regional emissions trading scheme (ETS) since 2013, and the lessons learned from the European Union ETS’s, China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will probably… Read More »
Argentina’s recently issued century bond deal was unexpected in terms of timing and maturity. Century bonds in Emerging Markets (EM) are rare (we think the table below is pretty exhaustive) and they grab the headlines, especially when issued by a credit that has defaulted many (many) times, like Argentina. Are… Read More »
Political changes in the US have caused uncertainty over the trade policies that could be implemented and the region’s vulnerability to tighter financial conditions. Since Donald Trump’s victory, the currencies of many emerging countries have fallen against the dollar. Mexico’s currency was the most greatly affected in the world, with… Read More »
India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) came into effect over the weekend. Notwithstanding the potential for short-term disruption, the medium to long term impact should be positive. India’s new Goods and Services Tax (GST) marks the next stage of the Modi administration’s plan for the modernisation and rationalisation of India’s… Read More »
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