The Chinese credit boom could lead to stress in the domestic banking sector and an extended periods of below-trend economic growth. Economic stabilisationChinese economic growth has stabilised in the recent quarters, posting 6.8%yoy at the end of last year. Both manufacturing and services PMI have been above the expansion threshold… Read More »
The Sultanate of Oman is a founding member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), whose members tend to act in a concerted manner when taking strategic decisions. With regards to its foreign policy however, Oman tends to balance the historical solidarity that links GCC members with its own desire to… Read More »
In reaction to the triggering of Article 50, Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy for State Street Global Markets, and Bill Street, head of investments for EMEA at State Street Global Advisors, offer their views. Metcalfe commented, “The triggering of Article 50 was well anticipated, but the fact negotiations… Read More »
The impact from the fall in the pound has started to feed through to import price inflation, but we expect the Bank of England (BoE) to hold fire on raising interest rates. UK consumer price inflation has jumped to its highest rate since September 2013, as the fall in the… Read More »
Archibald Ciganer -
The Japanese equity market ran the range of investor emotions in 2016, as sentiment shifted from very negative early in the year, amid fears of a macroeconomic crisis, to positive later on, inspired by Donald Trump’s election in the U.S. and his pro-growth rhetoric. A timely reminder of the highly… Read More »
?With newspapers full of Trump, Brexit and speculation about European politics – especially the upcoming French elections – it would be understandable if European investors opted to head for the hills. But US equity indices have continued to hit new highs and the party mood seems to have spilt over… Read More »
There is a sound economic and political case for expecting a relatively benign outcome for Mexico Two weeks ago I met with a number of companies in Mexico. Obviously it was a very topical time to be in that part of the world, given everything President Trump has said and… Read More »
Should Marine Le Pen win the French presidential election, the immediate reaction of markets is likely to be a spike in volatility for French assets due to the uncertainty of what is to come. Elections in April and May will see a new French president emerge. Recent polls suggest the… Read More »
Japan, the land of the rising sun, has seen many false dawns. As Charles Gave said this week, ‘Japan has been a reliable source of disappointment for investors for more than a quarter of a century’. However, there are reasons for optimism and pockets of strength, with some areas of… Read More »
Equity Research - Credit Suisse -
Credit Suisse thinks the risk of a Le Pen victory is overestimated: The 30% chance priced in betting markets is too high. We think the risk of a Le Pen victory is overestimated: The 30% chance priced in betting markets is too high in our view as: (i) Marine Le Pen… Read More »
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