The composition of a commodity index, the liquidity of its underlying contracts and the complexity of its rolling schedule can have an impact on its performance. There are a number of factors that need to be considered when choosing a commodity index to invest in. Historical back-tested performance only presents… Read More »
Year to date, the MSCI Energy is underperforming the MSCI World by more than 23%. Despite the upward revisions in demand from the EIA, the barrel did not manage to break the USD 50 price due to mixed signals surrounding worldwide supply and demand. On one hand, the large decrease… Read More »
An upside surprise in US inflation will drive gold higher by the end of this year, before paring gains by Q2 2018 Our gold model has four key inputs: US inflation rates, US nominal 10-year government bond yields, US dollar exchange rate and speculative positioning in gold futures. Our silver… Read More »
An upside surprise in US inflation will drive gold higher by the end of this year, before paring gains by Q2 2018 Our gold model has four key inputs: US inflation rates, US nominal 10-year government bond yields, US dollar exchange rate and speculative positioning in gold futures. Our silver… Read More »
Political uncertainties around the world have started to fade. However, centres of tension remain as criticisms over the Trump presidency are growing and as the US economic growth may be near peak. While the French and Dutch elections have defeated the risk of a populist victory, the Brexit negotiations remain… Read More »
The MSCI Energy is down 1.33% MTD underperforming the MSCI World Index by 2.01% bps. Since the OPEC meeting on 25 May, a series of disappointment sent the barrel down even further to USD 42.80 mid of June, losing more than USD 8 since the meeting which itself was first… Read More »
After hitting a seven week high early in the month but failing to breach the USD 1300 psychological level, gold pared back most of its gains as the USD started to firm in the aftermath of the lifting of a few uncertainties. The ECB meeting came and went and, as… Read More »
The remarkable lack of price disruption this year has not been evident in all markets—oil and commodities have been the notable exceptions. This was a key discussion point during our latest investment policy meetings, in which the team took a deeper dive into the factors driving the price swings and… Read More »
OPEC’s attempts to unseat high-cost production from other countries appears to be failing Changing course after failureIn 2015, we began a research series documenting the price war that The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) started in retaliation to the growing market share of high-cost producers. In this piece,… Read More »
Led by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), 21 nations have been trying to reduce crude production by almost 1.7 million barrels a day since November 2016 and have achieved an average compliance rate of 96%. On May 25th, OPEC will meet in Vienna to decide whether to extend… Read More »