Commodity supply cutbacks in focus


2015 has been characterised as a year of belt-tightening for miners, farmers and energy extraction companies in certain parts of the world The notable exception has been the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which changed strategy last November to produce as much oil as it can to gain… Read More »

Poor jobs report lends support to gold


The week ended with a disappointing US labour market report, which has pushed out expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate increase even further Gold ETPs saw net inflows of US$5.5mn ahead of the release of the jobs report. That marked the third consecutive week of gold inflows. While significantly below… Read More »

US dollar strength adds to commodity woes


Last week commodities diverged, largely trading on their individual fundamentals Palladium was the best performer, gaining 8% as investors fear a consumer backlash against diesel autocatalysts following thescandal at Volkswagen (which could favour palladium-heavy gasoline autocatalysts). Industrial metals were hurt again last week as the Caixin China PMI manufacturing data… Read More »

Commodities and Fed look to China for answers


China’s slowdown weighs on cyclical commodities, with uncertainty keeping investors defensive. Uncertainty over the outlook of the global recovery has been compounded by the US Federal Reserve’s decision to delay its rate tightening cycle. The Fed’s emphasis on subdued inflation and the spillover effects of a slowdown in the Chinese… Read More »

Focus on Fundamentals after the Fed

Kamakshya Trivedi -

A dovish FOMC may provide a reprieve, but EM FX weakness is not just about the Fed. After the body blows of August, EM FX has experienced some relief over the past week on the back of stability in the CNY and the prospect of a dovish FOMC. In the… Read More »

The strength of the USD is not good for the world economy

Maurizio Novelli -

The recent fall of stock markets triggered by the Chinese economic problems only confirms the slowness with which investors notice the consequences of long going macro trends. I believe that the correction in August has finally broken the upward trend of stock exchanges and markets will unlikely be able to… Read More »

Straits Talking: Iraq As Good As It Gets?

Morgan Stanley Research -

In conjunction with our commodity and oil services teams, we take a detailed look at the outlook for Iraqi oil production over the coming few years. Financing pressures and slowing investment activityremove further upside to volumes, in our view One of the big positive oil supply surprises this year has… Read More »

Crude Oil Volatility – No End in sight!


With economic momentum stalling in China, any hopes of commodity prices bottoming out any time soon have been dented The latest official manufacturing PMI for China signals stalling economic momentum. Producer sentiment in China, now reversing back into contractionary territory and below expectations, highlights the market’s fear of China’s economy… Read More »

The Chinese yuan: a box less black

Peter Sengelmann -

The yuan fell by 1.9% against the US dollar on 11 August. At first glance, this engineered devaluation by the People’s Bank of China appeared benign. When Argentina abandoned its peg to the US dollar in 2001, the peso dropped 40% in a day. Switzerland’s move to scrap the Swiss… Read More »

China: further devaluations before the end of the year

Hong Chen -

On August 11, China’s central bank, PBOC, announced that it had decided to improve its central parity system so that the exchange rate of the Chinese renminbi against the U.S. dollar would better reflect the market situation. In China’s spot foreign exchange market, the Yuan is allowed to rise or… Read More »