Copper – lower for longer


The bearish 3D’s of ‘macro’ combine with bearish copper ‘micro’ Substantially downgrading our medium to long-term forecastsThough we have been bearish on copper on a 12-mo forward basis for the past two and a half years, we have maintained a more bullish medium to long-term stance on the assumption of… Read More »

Commodities: Is It Time To Buy?


Commodities have been falling, mainly due to concerns over the Chinese stock market crash, economic turmoil in Greece and the recent Iran nuclear deal Commodities have been falling. So could this be a good time to buy commodities? Not all of them. Here’s my updated forecast: Crude oil – bullishNear-term,… Read More »

Industrial metals rally on Chinese data and stimulus

Nitesh Shah -

China’s official sector demand for the metal is strong and forms part of its US dollar diversification programme Third consecutive week of inflows into long oil ETPs. Bargain-hunting continued with WTI and Brent slipping a further 3.5% and 1.9% respectively. A landmark deal struck between Iran and world superpowers to… Read More »

Il taglio delle perdite


Alcuni suggerimenti sul perché e sul come limitare le dimensioni delle perdite nei nostri investimenti finanziari. Nel 2013 è stato pubblicato un interessante studio accademico costruito con un approccio innovativo (1). Gli autori di questo nuovo studio, avevano come obiettivo quello di verificare se l’analisi tecnica applicata negli investimenti di… Read More »

Crude Oil: What Happened?


A perfect storm of events has hit oil markets, but mostly just a sentiment move for now. We have been concerned about a number of headwinds and downside risk in oil markets heading into 3Q15 for some time, but our base case has been for Brent to be volatile within… Read More »

Agricultural commodities rally


The ‘No’ campaign in the Greece’s referendum received more than 60% of votes, emboldening the Greek government’s stance to reject its creditors terms. Gold has surprisingly not reacted to the events but that could change as worst-case scenarios crystalize Inflows into long oil ETPs highest in 14 weeks, as investors… Read More »

Big Oil: Toughen It Out, or Business Model Reboot?


The last several years have not been kind to the world’s oil majors1. Production has fallen steadily despite a surge in investment, cost inflation has been rife, and labour productivity has declined Even before the recent collapse in the oil price, return on capital had come under pressure and organic… Read More »

Investors accessing broad commodity exposures

Martin Arnold -

Broad basket commodity ETPs received over 50% of total inflows. With bond and some equity benchmarks seeming stretched, investors appear to be increasingly looking at the relative value of the commodity market and gaining broad based exposure via ETPs that offer a diversified exposure to a number of sectors Agricultural… Read More »

Sentiment overshadows fundamentals… for now


Outside the energy sector, investor sentiment for commodities has softened on the back of concern over the global economic outlook and the volatility that has pervaded financial markets. Volatility has been a ubiquitous force not only across asset classes, but across regions, as uncertainty over the health of the Chinese… Read More »

The commodity case


When you want to integrate an asset class into a diversified portfolio, you base your decisions on mainly 3 factors (in decreasing order of importance): the return, the risk and the correlation to the rest of your portfolio Looking first at return, commodity markets are the only major asset class… Read More »