Martin Arnold -
Upside potential for GBP despite the mixed message from the Bank of England (BOE) keeping volatility elevated. The market is underpricing the chance of rate hikes. One year on from the last rate cut, the Bank of England (BOE) has kept rates on hold, with the MPC voting 6-2 in… Read More »
Equity Research - Credit Suisse -
Credit Suisse Global Equity Strategy team believes that the dollar is likely entering a long-term bear market. Dollar bull markets have typically lasted 6-7 years, and bear markets 9-10 years. We agree with our FX strategists’ view of EURUSD at 1.22 in 12 months’ time. Among the factors supporting the… Read More »
Trading at 1.18/1.19 to the dollar, the euro has become a pricey currency. But the European currency has also gained against all other currencies as its effective exchange rate has returned to levels unseen since the end of 2014. So we can no longer count on the euro losing value.… Read More »
An upside surprise in US inflation will drive gold higher by the end of this year, before paring gains by Q2 2018 Our gold model has four key inputs: US inflation rates, US nominal 10-year government bond yields, US dollar exchange rate and speculative positioning in gold futures. Our silver… Read More »
An upside surprise in US inflation will drive gold higher by the end of this year, before paring gains by Q2 2018 Our gold model has four key inputs: US inflation rates, US nominal 10-year government bond yields, US dollar exchange rate and speculative positioning in gold futures. Our silver… Read More »
Political uncertainties around the world have started to fade. However, centres of tension remain as criticisms over the Trump presidency are growing and as the US economic growth may be near peak. While the French and Dutch elections have defeated the risk of a populist victory, the Brexit negotiations remain… Read More »
Martin Arnold -
USD dollar in a bottoming process as the US Federal Reserve becomes more proactive with monetary policy. Euro primed for decline as investor positioning is extremely overcrowded despite measured European Central Bank (ECB) rhetoric. New directional driver for FXCurrency volatility has made a persistent move downward in recent weeks, back… Read More »
The MSCI Energy is down 1.33% MTD underperforming the MSCI World Index by 2.01% bps. Since the OPEC meeting on 25 May, a series of disappointment sent the barrel down even further to USD 42.80 mid of June, losing more than USD 8 since the meeting which itself was first… Read More »
After hitting a seven week high early in the month but failing to breach the USD 1300 psychological level, gold pared back most of its gains as the USD started to firm in the aftermath of the lifting of a few uncertainties. The ECB meeting came and went and, as… Read More »
The remarkable lack of price disruption this year has not been evident in all markets—oil and commodities have been the notable exceptions. This was a key discussion point during our latest investment policy meetings, in which the team took a deeper dive into the factors driving the price swings and… Read More »
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