Modern Risk Management in times of Machine Learning


Artificial intelligence methods in asset management The launch of ChatGPT by Open AI at the beginning of the year highlighted the revolutionary character of artificial intelligence methods. While artificial intelligence was already present in translation services, digital assistants in customer chats, as well as image and speech recognition in medical… Read More »

ECB Preview—Ready For Liftoff


■     While the Euro area activity dataflow since the start of the war has been mixed, the incoming information points to much higher and more persistent inflationary pressures than anticipated in the March ECB staff projections. We therefore look for the staff projections for headline inflation to rise sharply to… Read More »

Sticking with our strategic views


•    We still prefer equities over fixed income on a strategic horizon, but we moderate our stance after this year’s big market moves. •    Stocks bounced back on hopes the Federal Reserve can soon pause rate hikes. But we don’t expect a sustained rebound until the Fed takes a clear… Read More »

Ukraine: war-torn economy to shrink 40% in 2022; daunting financing, reconstruction task ahead

Dennis Shen -

Ukraine’s economy faces a 40% contraction in 2022 amid Russia’s continuing invasion. The country’s future creditworthiness depends on the war’s outcome, the conflict’s final cost and official-sector assistance for long-run reconstruction. Uncertainty around the state of the Ukrainian economy is huge, but we assume output will partially rebound by around… Read More »

Turning neutral on DM equities


•    We cut developed market (DM) equities to neutral on a risk of the Fed talking itself into overtightening policy and China adding to a weaker global outlook. •    Stocks plumbed new 2022 lows on fears steep rate rises will trigger a growth slowdown. We see a brighter picture, but… Read More »

ECB—More Urgency to Act


■     Recent ECB commentary suggests that the Governing Council is very likely to end QE at its June meeting and guide towards lift-off at the July meeting, consistent with our forecast for a 25bp hike in July. The subsequent pace of hikes, however, remains subject to debate given slowing growth… Read More »

Inflation, War, And COVID Drag On


Headwinds Are Eroding Credit Buffers On May 17, we announced downward revisions to our global macroeconomic base-case forecasts of between 0.6% and 0.8% in the world’s three major economic regions. We now forecast growth of 4.2% in China, 2.4% in the U.S., and 2.7% in the eurozone in 2022. Underpinning… Read More »

EU Debt: The Only Way is Up


■     The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) entered its main stage where every additional disbursement by the EU to a Member State must be preceded by the achievement of the relevant milestones and targets. It is therefore essential to track the actual implementation of structural reforms and investments in order… Read More »